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Prediction markets for Luminance

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

3619769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11027

9758

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.21%chance

879123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

1199

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.3%chance

357751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6150

636

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Nov 20, 11:49 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

71.09%chance

394357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1525

288

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.82%chance

303981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2893

596

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.91%chance

363686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

565

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.89%chance

251409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

775

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1582

632

How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median?

Apr 10, 6:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17503

OptionProbability

Other

1 - 6 months

6 - 12 months

1 - 2 years

2 - 4 years

4 - 8 years

47

28

9

6

6

5

If i take the Lumina toothpaste, will I regret it 1 year later?

Jun 10, 6:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.66%chance

10426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

Sep 25, 11:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

986

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