Luminance News

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10714441

OptionProbability

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

3411568

OptionVotes

YES

11171

7571

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Apr 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54%chance

868873

OptionVotes

YES

1445

1387

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.64%chance

345750

OptionVotes

YES

4178

694

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.73%chance

303183

OptionVotes

YES

3190

569

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Nov 20, 11:49 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

36.18%chance

312451

OptionVotes

YES

957

784

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.36%chance

341386

OptionVotes

YES

1098

885

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.65%chance

231334

OptionVotes

YES

1130

760

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.3%chance

17991

OptionVotes

YES

1207

923

Will Luminar be delisted by the end of 2025

Sep 13, 8:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.58%chance

2400

OptionVotes

YES

1293

773

Will Lumina / BCS3-L1 by Lantern Bioworks be available in the EU by 2026?

Dec 8, 6:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.66%chance

11349

OptionVotes

YES

1294

940

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

Sep 25, 11:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

50.73%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

1015

986

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Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Will the Lumina oral probiotic treatment reduce the rate of cavities by at least 50% in the 4 years after application?

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Will Luminar be delisted by the end of 2025

Will Lumina / BCS3-L1 by Lantern Bioworks be available in the EU by 2026?

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

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