Luminance News

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5.92%chance

3620657

OptionVotes

YES

11075

8970

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Apr 16, 3:28 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

11317026

OptionProbability

Doesn’t work at all and never will

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

Doesn’t work in its current form, but could easily be modified into something that does

Causes (at least) medium side effects, same scale as tricyclics

Advance of approximately the same magnitude as fluoride

Causes disastrous side effects, same scale as thalidomide

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Apr 10, 5:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.95%chance

368933

OptionVotes

YES

4984

667

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Nov 20, 11:49 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

50.28%chance

508057

OptionVotes

YES

1150

528

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Apr 14, 8:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6%chance

305546

OptionVotes

YES

3838

522

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.58%chance

373736

OptionVotes

YES

1665

546

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

YES

1056

652

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.58%chance

251459

OptionVotes

YES

1083

825

How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median?

Apr 10, 6:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18986

OptionProbability

Other

1 - 6 months

6 - 12 months

1 - 2 years

2 - 4 years

4 - 8 years

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Oct 2, 2:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.44%chance

8690

OptionVotes

YES

1582

632

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

Sep 25, 11:57 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.68%chance

4175

OptionVotes

YES

1136

881

Will Lumina ship their oral probiotic to an EU retail customer before 2028?

Sep 6, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3128

OptionProbability

Later or never

Before January 2027

Before July 2027

Before January 2028

Before July 2026

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Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2028?

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

How long will the Lumina oral probiotic last in your mouth, by median?

Will Scott Alexander write another post about Lumina before 2030?

Will I get Lumina before 2030?

Will Lumina ship their oral probiotic to an EU retail customer before 2028?

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