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Prediction markets for Lunar

Will there be a lunar base by the end of 2029?

Nov 20, 3:30 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.65%chance

688503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

877

Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Mar 1, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.92%chance

295766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

276

Will China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?

Nov 10, 3:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.37%chance

163648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4496

790

Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?

Jan 10, 2:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39%chance

252880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

455

Will there be a space elevator before 2060? Earth or Lunar

Sep 20, 4:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.81%chance

142767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

652

Will China fake their first "lunar landing"?

Apr 30, 1:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

5.21%chance

131360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

101

Will NASA establish large-scale lunar regolith mining on the moon by 2032?

Jun 29, 8:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.35%chance

18891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

921

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will CNSA construct a manned lunar base before 2040?

Sep 23, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

962

In the year 2100, will construction have begun on a lunar space elevator?

Aug 6, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.88%chance

23451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.87%chance

19423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

952

Will there be a lunar particle accelerator by the beginning of 2050?

Nov 15, 7:04 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.84%chance

17330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

892

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