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Prediction markets for LW

Will "Toss a bitcoin to your Lightcone – LW + Light..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 13, 10:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.91%chance

2550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

931

How many babies will frequent Austin LW attendees have in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:11 PMJan 4, 5:59 AM

6482

OptionProbability

1

0

2

3

4

5

6 - 7

8 - 9

10 - 12

13+

38

20

8

8

8

6

5

4

2

2

Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?

Apr 21, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9180

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google Deepmind

Deepseek

Open AI

xAI

80

64

19

17

17

Will Austin LessWrong have a near-gender-balanced meetup in 2026?

Jan 3, 10:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.6%chance

7144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will a >100 karma LW post claim "How to Catch a Liar" suffers from similar problems to CCS?

Jan 15, 6:00 PMJan 23, 7:59 AM

31%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

111

Will more than 3 ATX LW programmers be technologically unemployed at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 8:50 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

8.7%chance

4138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

91

my application to LWCW 2027 is accepted?

Sep 16, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.34%chance

376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

983

Will blood tests of ppl w/upper-microplastics in the upper quartile have a higher DunedinPACE than lwr quartile?

Mar 30, 3:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.02%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

120

(LW Interesting Disagreements) EAs and rationalists should strongly consider having lots more children than currently

Nov 11, 7:30 AM

130

What Manifold question would be good to put on the (unofficial) LW Community Survey?

Nov 29, 11:09 PM

00

(LW) LLMs as currently trained run ~0 risk of catastrophic instrumental convergence even if scaled 1000x more compute

Nov 11, 7:25 AM

110

(LW Interesting Disagreements) Prosaic Alignment is currently more important to work on than Agent Foundations work.

Nov 11, 7:25 AM

120

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