OptionProbability
Will the realdonaldtrump manifolder join Hack Club by end of next week?
Will my preferred name still be "jelly" at end of next week?
Will I write a blog post by end of next week?
Will I figure out a good permanent handle for myself by end of next week?
Will I write 2 blog posts by end of next week?
Will Bayesian's weekly profit be >=15000 mana at end of next week?
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour tomorrow?
Will this market get more than 10 traders by end of next week?
Will johnswentworth post a new LW post by end of next week?
Will I decide which is clearly better (the empirical side of AI safety or the theoretical side of AI safety) by end of next week?
Will I gain >= 10 mana on lw by end of next week?
Will I post/comment on LW by end of next week?
Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?
Will I make 3 productive hours tomorrow?
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian tomorrow?
Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?
Will I make 5 productive hours today?
Will I demote to platinum?
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian today?
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour today?
100
66
64
51
50
44
43
41
34
19
1
0
Other
At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference
LessWrong (LW) Meetup
Bay Area Taco Tuesday
Manifold Markets Manifest
Secular Solstice
7
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1550
931
2
3
4
5
6 - 7
8 - 9
10 - 12
13+
38
20
8
1065
939
360
28
155
111
179
90