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Prediction markets for Machi

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

659864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

912

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will humans send AND receive a message telepathically via brain machine interface before 2026?

Jan 10, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.33%chance

653808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1561

807

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

Jun 19, 3:31 PMJun 19, 11:59 PM

16.7%chance

132540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7029

5488

Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 10, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.83%chance

211535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

928

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.86%chance

161059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

850

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

69.05%chance

211001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

709

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.96%chance

5473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

766

Will "Machinic Psychopharmacology: Do LLMs Self-Med..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 7:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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