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Macro News

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Feb 7, 10:27 AMFeb 7, 7:59 PM

10524255

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

Édouard Philippe

Other

Gabriel Attal

Marine Le Pen

Dominique de Villepin

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Olivier Faure

François Fillon

Bernard Cazeneuve

Christine Lagarde

François Ruffin

Laurent Wauquiez

Bruno Le Maire

Bruno Retailleau

Raphaël Glucksmann

Sébastien Lecornu

Juan Branco

François Hollande

Emmanuel Macron

François Bayrou

Gérald Darmanin

Nathalie Arthaud

Someone not on this list

Élisabeth Borne

Gérard Larcher

Rachida Dati

Marine Tondelier

Sarah Knafo

Éric Zemmour

27

15

11

10

8

6

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

605139

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Other

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Nanotech

Other biotech/bioweapon

Nuclear war

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Drones or other macro robots

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Chemical weapons

21

14

12

10

9

6

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.02%chance

324956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

836

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

64.95%chance

272815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

945

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.17%chance

162689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3354

298

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

Nov 23, 10:23 AMNov 23, 6:59 PM

221766

OptionProbability

Human war (any type)

Climate crisis

Societal collapse

AI (both misaligned and misused)

Coronal mass ejection

Nuclear war

Global pandemic

Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)

Supervolcano eruption

Impact event

Close supernova

Mass suicides

Kessler syndrome

War with extraterrestrials

Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally

67

57

48

45

44

43

41

32

30

15

11

10

9

9

7

sophomore year prop bets [add answers]

Jul 29, 11:01 PMAug 31, 10:58 PM

101062

OptionProbability

get a 5 on ap calculus bc

get a 5 on apcsa

get a 5 on ap phys 2

get a 5 on ap lang

get an A in honors chem

get a 5 on apush

get a 5 on ap econ micro

get a 5 on ap econ macro

get an A in mandarin

make USAPHO

make USAMO

make USACO camp

82

78

74

70

69

64

63

63

59

55

45

16

Will the Sperm Whale (Physeter macrocephalus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 28, 8:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.04%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

775

411

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

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