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Prediction markets for Macron

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Feb 7, 10:27 AMFeb 7, 7:59 PM

10223635

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

François Fillon

Édouard Philippe

Other

Gabriel Attal

Marine Le Pen

Dominique de Villepin

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Olivier Faure

Bernard Cazeneuve

Christine Lagarde

François Ruffin

Laurent Wauquiez

Bruno Le Maire

Gérald Darmanin

Gérard Larcher

Bruno Retailleau

Raphaël Glucksmann

Sébastien Lecornu

Juan Branco

François Hollande

Emmanuel Macron

François Bayrou

Nathalie Arthaud

Someone not on this list

Élisabeth Borne

Rachida Dati

Marine Tondelier

Sarah Knafo

Éric Zemmour

25

12

11

10

9

8

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.02%chance

324956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

836

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

Est ce que Macron démissionnera en 2026

Dec 21, 7:27 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

7.73%chance

173401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

80

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

64.95%chance

272815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

945

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

152589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3254

307

France changes Prime Minister before Macron's term ends?

May 29, 6:13 AMMay 1, 3:59 AM

95.9%chance

132161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

484

21

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.76%chance

12700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

192

Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?

Jul 4, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?

Dec 16, 5:31 AMApr 9, 3:59 AM

11%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

63

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