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Prediction markets for Macron

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Who will be the next president of France after Macron?

Feb 7, 10:27 AMFeb 7, 7:59 PM

10931364

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

Édouard Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Other

Marine Le Pen

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

Raphaël Glucksmann

François Hollande

François Ruffin

Olivier Faure

Bernard Cazeneuve

Christine Lagarde

Bruno Retailleau

Sarah Knafo

Éric Zemmour

Sébastien Lecornu

Emmanuel Macron

François Fillon

Laurent Wauquiez

Bruno Le Maire

François Bayrou

Gérald Darmanin

Nathalie Arthaud

Someone not on this list

Élisabeth Borne

Gérard Larcher

Rachida Dati

Marine Tondelier

Juan Branco

33

21

10

7

6

6

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.01%chance

334958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3199

836

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

4.39%chance

194001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4666

214

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

63.52%chance

282920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

907

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before April 2027

Jan 2, 3:10 PMMar 31, 1:00 PM

4.98%chance

11686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Will Macron begin a third term as President of France before 2038?

Jul 4, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

9416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Emmanuel Macron Stock (Permanent)

Mar 27, 6:59 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11192

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

209

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Jun 21, 2:27 PMMay 13, 11:59 PM

87.56%chance

478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

89

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