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Prediction markets for Made in Space

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.91%chance

353877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

976

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Will an adult movie be made in space and released by mid 2034?

Apr 17, 6:31 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

39.63%chance

482602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

545

Will a man made object sent into space after market creation leave the solar system before 2030?

Jun 17, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.35%chance

171158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

943

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030?

Dec 28, 9:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.62%chance

21945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

933

Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050?

Jun 12, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

15831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1502

666

Will any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.08%chance

17700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

918

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will Peter McCormack become Mayor of Bedford before 2030?

Jul 16, 10:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

835

Will I hold something manufactured or mined in space by 2028?

May 8, 8:57 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

13.29%chance

15276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

902

[Metaculus] Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:17 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

26.19%chance

463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

56

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