MAGA News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Robert Prevost / Pope Leo XIV

Other

[Any variation of Artificial Intelligence]

Benjamin Netanyahu

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Beyonce

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Other

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Ritchie Torres

Andy Beshear

Jon Ossoff

Tim Walz

JB Pritzker

Cory Booker

Chris Van Hollen

Hakeem Jeffries

Colin Allred

Jared Polis

John Fetterman

Elissa Slotkin

Rahm Emanuel

Wes Moore

Jasmine Crockett

Ruben Gallego

Ro Khanna

Zohran Mamdani

Raphael Warnock

Amy Klobuchar

Connor Duffy

[Invalid - Duplicate]

Yishan Wong

Adolf Hitler

Mark Cuban

Michelle Obama

Andrew Cuomo

Stephen A. Smith

There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

Jill Biden

No one

After the American Civil war 2, a military hero recognized for contributions during the conflict will be nominated

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Bake it with your best friend.

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Increase water by 50 g

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Improve the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Half yeast

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Bake one more minute

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Bake vodka into it

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Replace flour with flowers

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Make the bread great again

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Play classical music while baking

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Bake your social security number into it.

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

(Unrecorded)

(Unintelligible)

Melania

Make America Great Again

We love Elon. Folks, we love him.

My Country

Biden

Rosebud

Elon / Elon Musk

Kamala

I'm not dying!

MAGA! Please, MAGA!

Inflation

mars

My legacy, it was the best legacy, it had never been done before

Vriska did nothing wrong

go birds

rationalussy

The doctors tell me I'm dying better than anyone has ever died before. Tremendous dying. The best.

I know more about the afterlife than anyone. Heaven is already calling me saying 'Sir, we've never seen poll numbers like yours up here.

I guess I exercised too much

Hey, make sure that my name appears in the history books as a great person

Joe Biden still survives

"my white plume ..."

Polymarket

The Grim Reaper just called me. Terrific guy. Says he's never seen someone fight death so strongly. Very impressed.

This Isn't Even My Final Form!

YES

NO

NO

Yes, if a MAGA Republican is elected in 2024

NO

YES