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Prediction markets for Magnite

Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:00 PMJan 12, 10:00 PM

324138

OptionProbability

Other

Philippines

Indonesia

Fiji Region

Japan

Turkiye

Mexico

Chile

United States

Russia

Afghanistan

China

Peru

New Zealand

Ethiopia

Nepal

Colombia

Tonga

Morocco

Vanuatu

Guatemala

Qatar

Sweden

50

32

6

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

World GDP grows by an order of magnitude in 10 years?

Mar 24, 3:41 PMMar 24, 3:34 PM

10%chance

193242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)

May 5, 10:33 PMMay 5, 11:59 PM

72.72%chance

72831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

61

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Jan 9, 10:59 AMJan 10, 4:59 AM

90.22%chance

222597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2984

471

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Oct 21, 8:48 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM

23.87%chance

17747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

660

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?

May 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.3%chance

16675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

164

T Coronae Borealis reaches magnitude 5.0 before November 11th, 2026?

Jul 29, 4:05 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

19.3%chance

7516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

840

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2458

OptionProbability

4.6 to 5.0

5.6 to 6.0

5.1 to 5.5

More than 6.1

Up to 4.5

Other

35

21

14

14

10

6

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?

May 2, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

78

Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?

May 13, 12:30 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

18.72%chance

11259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

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