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Prediction markets for Magnite

World GDP grows by an order of magnitude in 10 years?

Mar 24, 3:41 PMMar 24, 3:34 PM

8.16%chance

193206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3355

298

Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)

May 5, 10:33 PMMay 5, 11:59 PM

72.72%chance

42804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

61

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Jan 9, 10:59 AMJan 10, 4:59 AM

90.22%chance

222597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2984

471

Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:00 PMJan 12, 10:00 PM

272329

OptionProbability

Philippines

Fiji Region

Other

Tonga

Japan

Indonesia

Mexico

United States

Chile

Russia

Turkiye

Afghanistan

China

New Zealand

Ethiopia

Nepal

Vanuatu

Peru

Colombia

Guatemala

Morocco

Sweden

Qatar

87

58

50

47

35

31

26

26

25

21

16

11

10

10

10

10

10

8

8

7

4

4

1

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Oct 21, 8:48 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM

23.87%chance

17747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

660

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?

May 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.3%chance

16675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

164

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2430

OptionProbability

5.6 to 6.0

Up to 4.5

4.6 to 5.0

5.1 to 5.5

More than 6.1

Other

25

17

17

17

17

7

Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?

Jun 21, 1:20 AMJan 2, 2:11 AM

10.45%chance

10380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?

May 13, 12:30 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

18.72%chance

11259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?

May 2, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.86%chance

10257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

74

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?

Jun 22, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

69

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