Mainnet News

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Feb 18, 9:37 PMDec 31, 9:35 PM

5586464

OptionProbability

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

Other

June 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Apr 9, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.57%chance

3242890

OptionVotes

YES

24211

4130

Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?

Apr 9, 5:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

56.93%chance

2727115

OptionVotes

YES

11498

8697

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2017276

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69599

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

ARC-AGI

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

FrontierMath

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

39.41%chance

17920

OptionVotes

YES

1286

740

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Dec 12, 1:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5667

OptionProbability

By 2027-12-31

By 2028-12-31

By 2026-12-31

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

By 2024-10-01

By 2025-01-01

By 2025-04-01

By 2025-07-01

By 2025-12-31

Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?

Jun 2, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.68%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

1242

805

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

Dec 16, 3:16 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

75.58%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

"The Surge": Will Ethereum use 2D Reed-Solomon Codes by these dates?

Nov 30, 5:27 AMJul 2, 4:26 AM

270

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-07-01

2026-01-01

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Mainnet News

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

Prediction markets for Mainnet

When will MNX mainnet launch?

Will MNX hit $100m in volume 2026?

Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

"The Verge": When will Ethereum use Verkle trees?

Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?

Will Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

"The Surge": Will Ethereum use 2D Reed-Solomon Codes by these dates?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

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