MAK News

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

349125780

OptionVotes

YES

2566

1866

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

YES

2292

1619

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.3%chance

17224053

OptionVotes

YES

14849

8064

Will I make the USAMO in the 2025-2026 season?

Mar 17, 11:25 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

14.08%chance

3613326

OptionVotes

YES

8856

7496

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410120

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

218716

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

50.71%chance

637188

OptionVotes

YES

2073

1869

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.19%chance

251716

OptionVotes

YES

1253

654

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

2277

439

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

1700

850

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

OptionProbability

Nothing

School

Chapter

State

National

Other

MAK News

Prediction markets for MAK

Prediction markets for MAK

Prediction markets for MAK

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Will I make the USAMO in the 2025-2026 season?

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will I make IMO ever

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

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