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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.21%chance

389146767

OptionVotes

YES

8075

6113

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

YES

2497

1461

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

1%chance

9952145

OptionVotes

YES

20635

225

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.9%chance

17525270

OptionVotes

YES

11950

9069

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2519583

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Alignment relatively easy

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

New AI paradigm

Brakes not hit

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

YES

1223

818

Should I make a dog run? (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

Nov 9, 11:44 PMJul 1, 10:21 PM

49.65%chance

194863

OptionVotes

YES

1007

993

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

1700

850

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will I make IMO ever

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Should I make a dog run? (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

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