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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

350125800

OptionVotes

YES

2566

1866

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

YES

2292

1619

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.3%chance

17224053

OptionVotes

YES

14849

8064

Will I make the USAMO in the 2025-2026 season?

Mar 17, 11:25 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

14.18%chance

3613336

OptionVotes

YES

8795

7506

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410125

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

218716

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

49.57%chance

668243

OptionVotes

YES

2028

1914

USITC makes positive preliminary injury determination in Russian unwrought palladium antidumping case?

Aug 13, 10:46 AMDec 31, 11:42 AM

74.56%chance

67751

OptionVotes

YES

17121

5841

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.19%chance

251716

OptionVotes

YES

1253

654

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

2277

439

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

OptionProbability

Nothing

School

Chapter

State

National

Other

Make News

Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Will I make the USAMO in the 2025-2026 season?

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will I make IMO ever

USITC makes positive preliminary injury determination in Russian unwrought palladium antidumping case?

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

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