Make News

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

YES

2199

2191

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

YES

2497

1461

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.89%chance

17425268

OptionVotes

YES

11948

9070

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

17.82%chance

8113484

OptionVotes

YES

4205

983

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2412123

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment extra hard

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

Should I make a dog run? (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

Nov 9, 11:44 PMJul 1, 10:21 PM

85.1%chance

154211

OptionVotes

YES

2390

418

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

111815

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

1700

850

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

Make News

Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Will I make IMO ever

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Should I make a dog run? (Cash prizes!!! maybe)

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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