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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

359130811

OptionVotes

YES

2199

2191

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

18477249

OptionVotes

YES

2324

1593

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.76%chance

17325218

OptionVotes

YES

11898

9090

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

239972

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

35.7%chance

699170

OptionVotes

YES

2582

1545

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

1083

923

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.87%chance

323717

OptionVotes

YES

1081

856

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

1700

850

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

Jul 26, 3:26 AMJun 1, 3:20 AM

OptionProbability

Nothing

School

Chapter

State

National

Other

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

Will I make IMO ever

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

What Will John Make In MathCounts?

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