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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.63%chance

399151007

OptionVotes

YES

9031

5995

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.32%chance

18677710

OptionVotes

YES

2440

1502

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

17625305

OptionVotes

YES

11985

9054

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2519584

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Alignment relatively easy

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

New AI paradigm

Brakes not hit

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

49.18%chance

466533

OptionVotes

YES

1016

984

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

1824

548

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:28 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

51460

OptionProbability

11.01 - 12 months

10.01 - 11 months

9.01 - 10 months

0 - 2 months

8.01 - 9 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

Mar 2, 11:22 PMDec 3, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

171074

OptionVotes

YES

1700

850

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Thomas Tuchel decision market - will England make it to the final of the Euros?

Jul 18, 9:53 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

**Assuming Tuchel sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

**Assuming Tuchel NOT sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

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Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

Prediction markets for Make

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Will Dennis Villeneuve make Dune 4?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Thomas Tuchel decision market - will England make it to the final of the Euros?

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

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