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Prediction markets for Make My Trip

Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027?

Jul 27, 10:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

86.76%chance

145416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3456

527

Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?

Jan 7, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.23%chance

474934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2534

190

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

46.63%chance

213403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

613

Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?

Jul 14, 1:28 PMJan 2, 12:30 PM

60%chance

171300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

627

Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?

Jul 14, 1:24 PMJan 2, 12:30 PM

17.27%chance

181117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

942

In what year will EVs surpass gas cars' cost/convenience for road trips?

Mar 28, 1:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4903

OptionProbability

2027

After 2030

2028

2029

2030

2026

2025

22

19

18

15

13

12

1

Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?

Jul 15, 11:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.58%chance

14466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

29

Will Trump face criminal charges relating to his involvement with Epstein?

Dec 16, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

14381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

53

Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036?

Jul 28, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.86%chance

13296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will "Estrogen: A trip report" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 17, 6:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "Recap of bike trip/street interviews across A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 17, 6:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.05%chance

4164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

976

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Aug 27, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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