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Prediction markets for Mako

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Dec 3, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.37%chance

10529189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

845

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

4.64%chance

3110493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3758

678

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM

3.26%chance

182491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2795

854

Does Exodus Propulsion's propellantless drive work?

Apr 28, 9:34 PMMay 1, 11:59 AM

10.29%chance

121771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

182

Will Valve announce a wearable, battery powered gaming PC?

Feb 15, 9:48 PMApr 9, 11:59 AM

43.19%chance

211000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

694

Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.88%chance

31868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1540

920

Eye tracking will replace the computer mouse.

Nov 9, 12:10 AMNov 16, 10:59 AM

10%chance

8607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

90

Will Holochain hold up under the stress of serious use?

Apr 30, 3:32 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

79%chance

7588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

164

Who will be the successor to Elon Musk at Tesla?

Jan 16, 12:46 AMApr 1, 10:59 AM

8234

OptionProbability

Other

Tom Zhu

Me!

Drew Baglino

Vaibhav Taneja

JB Straubel

Zachary Kirkhorn

Robyn Denholm

Omead Afshar

Ashok Elluswamy

33

14

9

8

7

6

6

6

6

6

Will Elon Musk's accusation against Substack turn out to be true?

Apr 18, 7:23 PMDec 31, 6:23 PM

20.75%chance

9189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

99

Will DIY Gene Drive happen?

Jan 11, 6:22 AMApr 1, 10:59 AM

33.63%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

69

Will there be, or has there been an instance of "Habituation" in a p2p network

Dec 3, 2:41 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

52.99%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

108

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