Mako News

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Dec 3, 6:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.39%chance

12739775

OptionVotes

YES

1248

812

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

4.64%chance

3110493

OptionVotes

YES

3758

678

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Feb 24, 7:17 AMJun 30, 12:01 PM

2.39%chance

233419

OptionVotes

YES

3723

828

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will Valve announce a wearable, battery powered gaming PC?

Feb 15, 9:48 PMApr 9, 11:59 AM

43.19%chance

211000

OptionVotes

YES

1165

694

Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030?

Jan 19, 6:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.88%chance

31868

OptionVotes

YES

1540

920

When will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?

Jul 8, 3:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

9840

OptionProbability

It wont be done, or warming will be resolved by other means before it's ever done

2025

2024

2029

2026

2027

2028

2030

2023

Who will be the successor to Elon Musk at Tesla?

Jan 16, 12:46 AMApr 1, 10:59 AM

8234

OptionProbability

Other

Tom Zhu

Me!

Drew Baglino

Vaibhav Taneja

JB Straubel

Zachary Kirkhorn

Robyn Denholm

Omead Afshar

Ashok Elluswamy

Will the AT Protocol (bluesky) end up being used as a distributed ledger?

Aug 20, 8:00 AMJun 26, 11:59 AM

30.88%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will the Bonfire social network project surmount its performance problems before it's too late?

Jan 9, 11:30 PMApr 1, 10:59 AM

53.89%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

Will there be, or has there been an instance of "Habituation" in a p2p network

Dec 3, 2:41 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

52.99%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

112

108

Does the MEGA Drive work?

Jun 10, 12:44 AMMay 15, 11:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Prediction markets for Mako

Prediction markets for Mako

Prediction markets for Mako

Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will Valve announce a wearable, battery powered gaming PC?

Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030?

When will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?

Who will be the successor to Elon Musk at Tesla?

Will the AT Protocol (bluesky) end up being used as a distributed ledger?

Will the Bonfire social network project surmount its performance problems before it's too late?

Will there be, or has there been an instance of "Habituation" in a p2p network

Does the MEGA Drive work?

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