Man Group News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?

Mar 14, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.01%chance

382444

OptionVotes

YES

2021

871

Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2025

Dec 6, 2:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.89%chance

18892

OptionVotes

YES

387

When will there be a 90+ minute AI-generated video that humans will pay to see?

Dec 12, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4722

OptionProbability

During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z)

During 2025 (2025-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2026-01-01T00:00Z)

2027 or later or never (2027-01-01T00:00Z <= time)

During 2022 or 2023 (time before 2024-01-01T00:00Z)

During 2024 (2024-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2025-01-01T00:00Z)

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

23.65%chance

21688

OptionVotes

YES

1258

872

Will the Blue Man Group still be performing in NYC at the end of 2030?

Dec 2, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.52%chance

11651

OptionVotes

YES

717

First person to die on Mars will be a man

Aug 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

10354

OptionVotes

YES

190

168

Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Nov 17, 11:03 AMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

225

OptionProbability

Olivia Dean

Addison Rae

Katseye

The Marias

Sombr

Leon Thomas

Alex Warren

Lola Young

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026

Feb 18, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

104

Man Group News

Prediction markets for Man Group

Prediction markets for Man Group

Prediction markets for Man Group

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?

Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2025

When will there be a 90+ minute AI-generated video that humans will pay to see?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Will the Blue Man Group still be performing in NYC at the end of 2030?

First person to die on Mars will be a man

Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026

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