Man Group News

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027

Apr 3, 8:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

202810

OptionVotes

YES

995

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?

Mar 14, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.32%chance

392746

OptionVotes

YES

2321

856

When will there be a 90+ minute AI-generated video that humans will pay to see?

Dec 12, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61252

OptionProbability

During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z)

2027 or later or never (2027-01-01T00:00Z <= time)

During 2025 (2025-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2026-01-01T00:00Z)

During 2022 or 2023 (time before 2024-01-01T00:00Z)

During 2024 (2024-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2025-01-01T00:00Z)

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

1153

907

Will anti-gravitational technology be disclosed before 2030?

Apr 4, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.43%chance

8752

OptionVotes

YES

310

First person to die on Mars will be a man

Aug 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65%chance

10354

OptionVotes

YES

190

168

Will A2O Lite's next song achieve a perfect all-kill?

Oct 26, 8:52 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

33.08%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

142

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Man Group News

Prediction markets for Man Group

Prediction markets for Man Group

Prediction markets for Man Group

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?

When will there be a 90+ minute AI-generated video that humans will pay to see?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Will anti-gravitational technology be disclosed before 2030?

First person to die on Mars will be a man

Will A2O Lite's next song achieve a perfect all-kill?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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