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Prediction markets for Mana

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.84%chance

87213855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48701

2854

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

1.02%chance

73125453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25871

431

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10356200

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

100

74

72

64

64

43

31

21

11

7

Will Mana-chan tweet again before 2027?

Aug 19, 12:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

56.67%chance

2524659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

79

How many active mana traders will Manifold have (7 day average) at the end of 2026?

Sep 15, 8:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2518684

OptionProbability

Above 800

Above 1000

Above 1200

Above 1400

Above 1600

Above 1800

56

21

13

11

4

3

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

31.84%chance

778757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

1069

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?

Feb 2, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

335340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

808

Will humanoid robots be commonplace in the US, by 2040? ($1k mana subsidy)

Nov 4, 1:01 PMJan 2, 6:29 PM

75.2%chance

363677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

587

Will humanoid robots be commonplace in the US, by 2030? ($1k mana subsidy)

Nov 4, 1:01 PMJan 2, 6:29 PM

39.88%chance

323438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

485

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

983

[400 mana bounty]What inexpensive things, if I buy, will I think was worth the time and money in terms of improving QOL?

Sep 29, 1:30 AMJan 1, 2:29 AM

341911

OptionProbability

Extra phone charger

Waterproof shower speaker

Premium shower head

Rechargeable motion-sensor LED light (for closets, hallways, or under the bed)

New pillow

Shoe horn

100

65

61

60

58

39

Will mana become less valuable by 2028? (Experimental)

Sep 11, 8:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.7%chance

3178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

863

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