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Prediction markets for Management

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2261110

OptionProbability

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

51

36

12

1

Will Jurgen Klopp Return to Manage Liverpool until 2030?

Oct 20, 12:13 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4.98%chance

310673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4368

229

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

283106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3047

329

AI "devops" #2: Will there be an AI that can help manage cloud infrastructure by 2030?

May 4, 9:06 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.28%chance

101893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

975

Will Berlin manage to build 200,000 new apartments before 2031?

Aug 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.58%chance

181147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

953

Will worldcoin manage to get 2 billion people to scan their eyeballs by the end of 2030?

Jul 31, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Jun 12, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.37%chance

12767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

853

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Apr 9, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.14%chance

14524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

986

Will there exist a competent window manager on MacOS before 2028?

Nov 27, 10:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.21%chance

6480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

737

Will Kerry Vaughan (manager at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 5, 2:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.09%chance

12382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

961

Prompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]

Apr 10, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

4153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

967

Will more MLB managers get fired in the 2026 MLB season than in the 2025 MLB season?

Apr 27, 1:16 AMNov 2, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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