Manas AI News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

325859713

OptionVotes

YES

7539

3536

What is Quroe's favorite animal?

Dec 14, 11:53 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6549247

OptionProbability

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus

Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈

Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉

Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈

❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]

Wolverine - Gulo gulo

Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina

Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima

Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉

Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus

Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria

Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉

Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉

Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana

Coyote - Canis latrans

Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉

Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉

Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉

Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus

Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉

❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]

❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]

❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]

❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]

🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]

❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]

❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈

❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]

❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]

❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]

❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]

❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

Other

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

2622

208

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

YES

1489

637

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Nov 28, 1:25 PMJun 23, 9:59 PM

73328

OptionProbability

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

YES

1022

914

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

YES

1053

738

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

YES

1156

864

Will AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?

Apr 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 9:49 PM

32.77%chance

6101

OptionVotes

YES

143

420 mana for the first broadly accepted solution to AI alignment

Aug 12, 6:53 PMAug 13, 6:29 PM

Should Manifold "airdrop" all current users 10k Mana that can only be spent on opening new markets?

Apr 9, 4:48 AM

190

Manas AI News

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

What is Quroe's favorite animal?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Will AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?

420 mana for the first broadly accepted solution to AI alignment

Should Manifold "airdrop" all current users 10k Mana that can only be spent on opening new markets?

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