Manas AI News

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.57%chance

324859502

OptionVotes

YES

7349

3560

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

2622

208

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

Apr 19, 2:32 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.73%chance

483498

OptionVotes

YES

1489

637

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Nov 28, 1:25 PMJun 23, 9:59 PM

73328

OptionProbability

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM

Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?

Aug 5, 2:16 PMAug 5, 1:38 PM

24.04%chance

132863

OptionVotes

YES

1777

563

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

YES

993

983

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Mar 4, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.06%chance

131094

OptionVotes

YES

1777

563

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

YES

1022

914

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

YES

1053

738

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

YES

1156

864

420 mana for the first broadly accepted solution to AI alignment

Aug 12, 6:53 PMAug 13, 6:29 PM

Should Manifold "airdrop" all current users 10k Mana that can only be spent on opening new markets?

Apr 9, 4:48 AM

190

Manas AI News

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Prediction markets for Manas AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

By 2040, will AI be capable of creating a working Manifold clone to a prompt?

How to get rid of a nicotine addiction in one month?

Will an AI be able to beat me in Pokemon?

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Will I make 10k mana in profit on manifold market before 2027

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

420 mana for the first broadly accepted solution to AI alignment

Should Manifold "airdrop" all current users 10k Mana that can only be spent on opening new markets?

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