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Prediction markets for Manas AI

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.56%chance

335863543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5969

3766

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Sep 25?

Sep 21, 6:04 PMSep 25, 11:59 AM

74.7%chance

84741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1718

582

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

158

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

983

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $75 before Sep 27?

Sep 23, 8:22 AMSep 26, 11:59 PM

43.91%chance

41630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

885

How much mana can I use to exchange for Airpods 4?

Jul 6, 5:03 AMDec 31, 5:50 AM

81403

OptionProbability

I will not receive a set of Airpods 4 from a Manifold user before 2026 EOY

Scenarios not covered by any other answers

50000-100000

100,000 or above

10000-20000

20000-30000

30000-40000

40000-50000

Less than 10000

65

9

6

5

3

3

3

3

2

Will at least one of the "apocalypse markets" be resolved positively after the apocalypse?

Jun 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

30.2%chance

18910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

914

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Aug 21, 5:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.11%chance

14413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

864

Will AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?

Apr 2, 8:49 PMJan 1, 9:49 PM

29.87%chance

8115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Should Manifold "airdrop" all current users 10k Mana that can only be spent on opening new markets?

Apr 9, 4:48 AM

190

420 mana for the first broadly accepted solution to AI alignment

Aug 12, 6:53 PMAug 13, 6:29 PM

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