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Top stories

Cuban-Born Investor Hernandez Enters Crowded 2025 NYC Mayoral Race

Cuban-Born Investor Hernandez Enters Crowded 2025 NYC Mayoral Race

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Manhattan

"Manhattan Project" for AGI before 2029?

Jun 7, 1:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.2%chance

5111306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

630

When will I be able to summon a robotaxi in Manhattan?

Apr 30, 3:02 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

163383

OptionProbability

By the end of 2027

By the end of 2026

Later than 12/31/2027

By the end of 2025

47

29

23

2

Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)

Feb 6, 6:25 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

52%chance

181145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

422

Which consequences will Donald Trump face?

Jan 23, 6:47 PMApr 23, 6:59 AM

15546

OptionProbability

Manhattan Crimes

All of the above suspended since Trump won the 2024 election

Trump wins the election and is impeached for any count

Classified Documents

BIG Lie (January 6th)

Georgia Election

100

100

41

0

0

0

Will I be able to take a waymo between manhattan and any other state or borough by the end of Halloween 2026?

Dec 4, 4:55 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

4.77%chance

10386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

22

Will I be able to take a waymo between two points in manhattan by the end of 2026?

Sep 30, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.38%chance

10382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

331

30

Will NYC have a city owned grocery store operating in Manhattan at the end of 2029?

Aug 3, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.49%chance

15289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"

Mar 24, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7221

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2029

By 2028

By 2027

By 2026

77

70

59

42

8

Will I be able to take a waymo between manhattan and any other state or borough by the end of 2026?

Sep 30, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.24%chance

5168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

Manhattan project for microplastics reduction by eoy2032

Dec 3, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will I be able to take a waymo between manhattan and any other state or borough by the end of Halloween 2027?

Aug 8, 7:14 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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