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Prediction markets for Manifold

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48%chance

4531094477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11267

7882

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662260

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

35

28

14

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Nov 3, 6:25 PMDec 31, 5:55 PM

50%chance

12985786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.6%chance

6864891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46861

749

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Sep 15, 6:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

4744901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32085

5111

Will manifold shrink from start of 2025 to 2030?

Feb 15, 9:51 AMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

32.11%chance

2120257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14339

7061

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.77%chance

8311673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

1201

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

38.76%chance

193967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12570

7955

Manifold Staffs Stocks

Mar 27, 8:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

183406

OptionProbability

@SG (Stephen Grugett)

@Conflux

@Gen

@Austin

@SirSalty (David Chee)

Other

@JamesGrugett

@ian

@Sinclair

Marshall Polaris

@Joshua

Alice Pang

68

10

8

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

858

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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