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Prediction markets for Manifold Trading

Will this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?

Apr 18, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

168748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Jan 8, 8:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

436002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

62

Manifold adds options trading by 2028 election?

Jul 19, 2:47 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

16.68%chance

225165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

76

Zizian activity on Manifold demonstrated before the end of 2025

Feb 2, 10:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

252199

OptionProbability

At least 1 Zizian traded on Manifold

At least 2 Zizians traded on Manifold

At least 3 Zizians traded on Manifold

A Zizian wrote at least one message on Manifold's Discord

A Zizian traded or will trade on Manifold in 2025

More than 3 Zizians traded on Manifold

A Zizian traded in this market

Manifold Partner is/was a Zizian

Manifold Mod is/was a Zizian

@Mira is/was a Zizian

100

80

57

32

32

21

12

8

7

6

Will Manifold Introduce an Incentive for Trading on Markets with Few Traders? (Proposal in Description)?

Mar 5, 4:49 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

122127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2270

53

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

74.72%chance

151219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

605

Will a Manifold subscription include advanced trading features?

Jan 13, 11:43 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

12.23%chance

13925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

561

74

Will an AI bot reach the top of the all-time trading leaderboard of Manifold Markets?

Oct 30, 6:48 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

65.94%chance

11805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

160

Will Manifold support trading from fediverse accounts by 2030?

Nov 1, 7:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.93%chance

15774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

615

Will there be an autonomous AI trading bot with real-time information placing bets on Manifold in 2025?

Feb 23, 12:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8405

OptionProbability

Yes, one based on OpenAI

Yes

Yes, one based on Claude

Yes, one based on Grok

Yes, one based on Deepseek

98

98

28

26

24

Will anyone file a lawsuit to insider trade on a Manifold market, by 2030?

Apr 11, 5:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.79%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

67

Will SBF publicly confirm he has joined and traded on Manifold Markets?

Feb 7, 1:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.42%chance

5146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

71

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