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Top stories

Hodl Hodl Unveils Speakers and Sponsors for 2025 Bitcoin Hackathon

Hodl Hodl Unveils Speakers and Sponsors for 2025 Bitcoin Hackathon

Authors

5

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Manifold

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

56.31%chance

440954278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12844

6434

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

128565987

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

10%chance

143331308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

2233

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32582

1375

Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?

Jan 22, 7:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.85%chance

4918584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17172

3184

Will James or Austin return to Manifold before 2026?

Sep 15, 6:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.55%chance

2717673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23775

6052

Will manifold shrink from start of 2025 to 2030?

Feb 15, 9:51 AMFeb 22, 10:59 PM

41.68%chance

1916388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11616

8644

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

3512403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19709

5074

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

Sep 6, 1:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.42%chance

8111618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

1163

Will this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?

Apr 18, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

157995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

394

Does manifold prefer Separate Peace or Movable Feast?

Jan 10, 10:31 PMFeb 10, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

a separate peace - knowles

a movable feast - hemmingway

50

50

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