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Prediction markets for Mankind

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.48%chance

11314363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1817

1806

Which AI-generated images will Trump or official US accounts share during his second term?

May 7, 9:21 AMDec 20, 11:59 AM

261933

OptionProbability

Trump as Superman

Trump as an astronaut

Trump as a cowboy

Trump as a pilot

Trump as a scientist

Trump as a wizard.

Trump as a Spartan

Trump as Dalai Lama.

Trump as a lion.

Trump as the God-Emperor of Mankind.

100

71

47

45

40

26

26

13

11

6

Will a human visit the Jovian System before the end of Season Five of For All Mankind?

Nov 10, 2:52 AMJun 1, 3:59 PM

24.6%chance

13613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

957

Will a human walk on the surface of Venus before the end of Season Five of For All Mankind?

Nov 10, 3:10 AMJun 1, 3:59 PM

9.13%chance

9566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

158

Will there be a sequel to Deus Ex Mankind Divided before 2030?

Aug 4, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

80.42%chance

5146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

87

What will be true of the next sentence spoken on the moon?

Mar 28, 7:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

340

OptionProbability

It will be spoken in English

It will be spoken by an America

It will be spoken before 2030

It will make reference to “One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind”

58

50

50

34

What will happen in Season One of Star City?

Apr 20, 1:57 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

A human dies during a space mission*

A human lands on the moon

Ed Baldwin appears

An N1 rocket explodes

Vostok 1 is launched

72

66

59

50

50

Should people who think more rationally than most form a secret society?

Dec 25, 6:58 PM

450

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