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Will a erage earth temperature increase by more than 2 % by the end of 2025?

Oct 8, 1:55 PMJun 1, 5:59 AM

4.07%chance

144293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4834

543

Who Will Win 2026 MSNCT?

May 13, 7:50 PMMay 10, 10:59 PM

102522

OptionProbability

Riverwatch A

St. Mark's of Texas

Heritage A

Horace Mann A

Other

Middlesex A

Hunter A

River Trail A

Longfellow A

Churchill A

Meadows A

Meyzeek A

Finan Homeschool

T.H. Rogers

Emerson A

Oak Valley

40

24

5

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?

Nov 6, 2:57 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

81.06%chance

111367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2069

483

Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?

Aug 4, 12:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

161284

OptionProbability

Other

Stephanie Wilson

Jessica Watkins

Wang Haoze

Kayla Barron

Liu Yang

Wang Yaping

Nicole Mann

Anne McClain

Jasmin Moghbeli

Jessica Meir

Christina Koch

Kate Rubins

32

13

9

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

4

1

1

Who will be the next person to land on the moon?

Feb 9, 4:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

151219

OptionProbability

Other

Jenni Gibbons

Andre Douglas

Stephanie Wilson

Anne McClain

Jasmin Moghbeli

Nicole A. Mann

Jessica Watkins

Matthew Dominick

Kayla Barron

Zhai Zhigang

Nichole Ayers

Jessica Wittner

Elon Musk

Kate Rubins

Scott Tingle

Frank Rubio

Jessica Meir

Kjell Lindgren

Christina H. Koch

Jonny Kim

Raja Chari

Wang Yaping

Liu Yang

@121

Jeffery Bezos

Mark Zuckerberg

Warren Hoburg

Victor Glover

Joseph Acaba

Other

17

14

13

7

7

6

6

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fodder stock

May 23, 6:24 PMMay 24, 6:59 AM

5777

OptionProbability

NO

YES

280

63

Who will be the first person on Mars?

Oct 23, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

16637

OptionProbability

Other

Connor Duffy

Barron Trump

X Æ A-12

Jared Isaacman

Someone who is not an option in this market at close time

Qiaochu Yuan

Elon Musk

An AI

Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut

Jebediah Kerman

Jessica Wittner

Jack Hathaway

Luke Delaney

Raja Chari

Nicole Aunapu Mann

Aellagirl

93

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

Will Scream Fortress 2026 have 6 or more new maps? [Team Fortress 2] [TF2]

Oct 13, 7:09 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

23.26%chance

9215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

134

Which many-world-ish interpretation is right?

Aug 21, 11:58 PMAug 21, 11:32 PM

2140

OptionProbability

Everett’s original

Decoherence & decision-theoretic Many-Worlds (Wallace)

Envariance / Quantum Darwinism (Zurek)

Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Vaidman)

Decoherent Histories (Gell-Mann–Hartle)

Many-Minds (Albert–Loewer)

Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Sebens–Carroll)

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Do some genetic make-ups cause cannabinoids to be metabolized in an atypical manner that influences CHS susceptibility?

Apr 26, 3:55 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

76.99%chance

4110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

288

125

Will the Brooklyn Tower Life Time Fitness offer a dedicated pickleball court before 2027?

Jun 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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