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Prediction markets for Manufacturing

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.04%chance

18153882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1998

1192

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.78%chance

13442839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4881

1346

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

16.41%chance

6821620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22296

4846

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?

Mar 9, 10:52 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

82.58%chance

312972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2148

463

Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?

Jan 17, 7:04 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

61.63%chance

241918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1429

556

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?

Jan 17, 6:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.86%chance

231722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

734

Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?

Jan 17, 6:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.65%chance

201664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

842

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Mar 8, 6:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

75.75%chance

191645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

641

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2032?

Mar 1, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.48%chance

241217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

625

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

52.57%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

982

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

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