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Prediction markets for Manufacturing

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1170

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.31%chance

13543125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5141

1325

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

13.21%chance

6824805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25481

4296

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?

Mar 9, 10:52 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

82.97%chance

323002

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

457

Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?

Jan 17, 7:04 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

56.98%chance

261988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

626

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Mar 8, 6:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

80.87%chance

211965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1972

559

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?

Jan 17, 6:45 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35.41%chance

271837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

744

Will 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2029?

Jan 17, 6:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.9%chance

211674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

834

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2032?

Mar 1, 11:53 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.49%chance

241367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1819

578

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

53.59%chance

15676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

977

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

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