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Prediction markets for Marathon

Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.

Nov 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.64%chance

2710884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6075

172

Will Taylor Swift get married before a swift human breaks the 2h00m00s official marathon barrier?

Jan 12, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.15%chance

417969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4753

1052

When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?

Nov 13, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.33%chance

287564

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1657

359

Who will break 2:00 in the marathon?

Dec 10, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

187187

OptionProbability

Other

Jacob Kiplimo

Sabastian Sawe

No one by market close

John Korir

Sisay Lemma

Alexander Mutiso Munyao

Eliud Kipchoge

Evans Chebet

Kelvin Kiptum

27

18

17

16

15

2

2

1

1

0

In what year will a human complete an official, verified marathon in under two hours?

Dec 2, 7:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

277111

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2030 or later

2028

2029

2025

2024

36

20

17

11

9

6

1

Will Eliud Kipchoge ever win the NYC or Boston marathon?

May 7, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.8%chance

83299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1812

366

Will someone run a marathon wearing an Apple Vision Pro?

Feb 11, 5:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

272842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2519

100

Will humans run a two hour marathon before humanoid robots?

Apr 19, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

332108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will a human run a marathon under 2 hours before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 29, 9:40 PMDec 6, 4:59 AM

25.63%chance

231805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

623

Will a bipedal robot run a marathon in under 3 hours before a human runs a marathon in under 2 hours

Apr 2, 7:40 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

30.09%chance

10701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

186

Will Marathon (Bungie's new game) release before the Legend of Zelda Movie (Nintendo)?

Dec 26, 2:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.06%chance

13350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

816

I finish a Half Marathon under 5:00 min/km pace?

Nov 4, 9:04 PMDec 13, 8:56 PM

41.01%chance

582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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