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MARC News

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12042715076

OptionProbability

Bill Gates

Elon Musk

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Other

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

Robert Caro

Donald Trump

Gwern Branwen

JD Vance

pope Francis

Kamala Harris

Buffett

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Ilya Sutskever

Jensen Huang

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

17

15

10

10

9

8

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

176211853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2554

67

Marc Andreessen publicly breaks with Trump by mid 2026

Mar 17, 11:53 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.92%chance

198759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2856

350

Will Marc Andreessen be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.05%chance

221363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

940

Will Marc with a q reach his target weight of 170lbs by end of 2025

Jan 10, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.34%chance

4425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

875

Will Marc Andreessen start a new company (not an investment firm) by 2026?

Dec 6, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.28%chance

6350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

874

Will Marc N. Casper (CEO of Thermo Fisher Scientific) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.39%chance

6289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

104

Will Marc Atiyeh (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 21, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.55%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

59

Will Marc Lore's planned city of Telosa begin construction before 2030?

May 1, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.35%chance

6104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Marc Benioff be sole CEO of Salesforce at the end of 2025?

Feb 28, 7:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.84%chance

791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

158

Will Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 attend Hereticon 2025?

Nov 17, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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