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Prediction markets for March

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Feb 28, 6:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

18.16%chance

23174601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2123

471

Will there be more mana purchased in March 2026 than in December 2025?

Jan 11, 4:53 AMApr 1, 3:52 AM

23.06%chance

6214591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8168

3781

OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:17 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

2.27%chance

2613697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11688

215

Another American cartel leader killed/captured before end of march?

Feb 22, 11:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

10210154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

🚨UPDATE MARCH 2026🚨 Will a decipherment of the Voynich Manuscript be scientifically recognized by end of Dec 31, 2026

Feb 18, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

4910126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

4

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $95 on March 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 7:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

55.41%chance

436426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

897

Will Purdue be in the Final Four of March Madness?

Dec 11, 3:54 AMApr 4, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

243557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

427

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?

Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

63.21%chance

241238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

437

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

94%chance

2417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5329

4976

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