Margin News

NO

Republican by five to ten points

Republican by more than ten points

Republican by under five points

Democrat by under five points

Democrat by five to ten points

Democrat by more than ten points

Talarico 5.00-9.9999%

Talarico 10-19.9999%

Crockett 0-4.99999%

Talarico 0-4.99999%

Crockett 5-9.99999%

Talarico 20%+

6% to 8%

4% to 6%

8% to 10%

2% to 4%

0% to 2%

10% to 12%

12% to 14%

Above 14%

-2% to 0%

Above $1,000,000

Above $800,000

Above $900,000

Above $500,000

Above $600,000

Above $700,000

Above $400,000

Above $300,000

Above $100,000

Above $200,000

180 or fewer (0-180)

160 or fewer (0-160)

140 or fewer (0-140)

120 or fewer (0-120)

100 or fewer (0-100)

80 or fewer (0-80)

60 or fewer (0-60)

40 or fewer (0-40)

20 or fewer (0-20)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

Datafolha

Ipec

Quaest

Atlas Intel

Ipespe

Paraná Pesquisas

NO

YES

Wet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Wet weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

Wet weather // D wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by > 4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 2%-4% margin

Dry weather // R wins by 0%-2% margin

Dry weather // D wins by 2%-4% margin

YES