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Prediction markets for Marine One

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

596835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13221

7577

Will Monkey D Garp betray or defect from the Marines And World Government before the end of One Piece?

Mar 20, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.38%chance

372530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

921

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

19876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will Sabo or Dragon fight Akainu? (With or without Luffy)

Mar 4, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16371

OptionProbability

mainly Sabo

mainly Luffy, Sabo helps

mainly Dragon

mainly Luffy, Dragon helps

None of these happen, only Luffy fights him alone

mainly Luffy, both of them help

94

86

83

54

54

50

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

971

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.78%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

72

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

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