Market Infrastructure Institutions News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21651711

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Reza Pahlavi

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Hassan Rouhani

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497028

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

YES

4212

237

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.95%chance

5261

OptionVotes

YES

319

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

183

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

171

Market Infrastructure Institutions News

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

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