Market Infrastructure Institutions News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20647202

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Navid Shomali

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497028

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.66%chance

43645

OptionVotes

YES

4212

237

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

121095

OptionProbability

Rejection

Acceptance

Waitlist

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

290

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.86%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

161

Market Infrastructure Institutions News

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Prediction markets for Market Infrastructure Institutions

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

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