OptionProbability
Mojtaba Khamenei
Other
Reza Pahlavi
No Head Of State
Hassan Rouhani
Masoud Pezeshkian
Alireza Arafi
Hassan Khomeini
Sadegh Larijani
Maryam Rajavi
Ali Larijani
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
Abbas Araghchi
Ahmad Vahidi
Mohammad Khatami
Ali Asghar Hejazi
Donald Trump
Hassan Shariatmadari
Marco Rubio
35
30
9
5
4
3
1
0
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
55
37
32
14
12
10
8
OptionVotes
NO
YES
4212
237
Rejection
Acceptance
Waitlist
47
41
1051
819
161
62
