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Market Infrastructure Institutions News

Leader of Iran at end of 2026?

Mar 15, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22457226

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Reza Pahlavi

Hassan Rouhani

No Head Of State

Ahmad Vahidi

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Mohamed Amin

Ali Larijani

Masoud Pezeshkian

Maryam Rajavi

Alireza Arafi

Hassan Khomeini

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Sadegh Larijani

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Abbas Araghchi

Mohammad Khatami

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Donald Trump

Hassan Shariatmadari

Marco Rubio

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

85

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497096

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

62

32

31

14

12

10

8

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.1%chance

63775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

367

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will MBG get defunded before 2027?

Mar 12, 5:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will the US use access to AI as leverage in trade negotiations with the EU before 2028?

Jun 27, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.93%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?

Sep 27, 7:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?

Aug 8, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.65%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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