Market Maker News

Will QS invoice a customer an amount exceeding $50 million in a single quarter during the Fiscal Year 2026.

Dec 21, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.97%chance

121979

OptionVotes

YES

705

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91800

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

June 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

July 2026

August 2026

It won't, not before 2027

February 2026

January 2026

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.2%chance

141344

OptionVotes

YES

1505

899

Will a body of water or waterway suffer an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes during 2025?

Dec 24, 9:44 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

3.97%chance

8845

OptionVotes

YES

756

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

473

174

Will Soy, Oat, Almond and other Non Dairy Milks still be allowed to use the word 'Milk' in the USA on Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 6, 5:38 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

89.22%chance

15478

OptionVotes

YES

984

887

Will TSLA reach $900 before 2028

Feb 9, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.46%chance

4476

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will Open AI hit 750+ Billion Dollar Evaluation Before March 31st, 2026?

Jan 14, 5:43 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

81.49%chance

10367

OptionVotes

YES

226

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

1101

908

Most unique feature of Manifold Markets Stocks (Add your own)

Apr 10, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

482

OptionProbability

Create your own questions

Resolve your own prediction markets

Other

Bounties for comments

Automated market maker (AMM)

Liquidity subsidy

Polls

Prediction market

Will Western Digital and Kioxia complete merger before 2027?

Oct 14, 10:38 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

22.66%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

156

Market Maker News

Prediction markets for Market Maker

Prediction markets for Market Maker

Prediction markets for Market Maker

Will QS invoice a customer an amount exceeding $50 million in a single quarter during the Fiscal Year 2026.

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Will a body of water or waterway suffer an oil spill of more than 10 000 tonnes during 2025?

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Will Soy, Oat, Almond and other Non Dairy Milks still be allowed to use the word 'Milk' in the USA on Jan 1st 2028?

Will TSLA reach $900 before 2028

Will Open AI hit 750+ Billion Dollar Evaluation Before March 31st, 2026?

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Most unique feature of Manifold Markets Stocks (Add your own)

Will Western Digital and Kioxia complete merger before 2027?

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