Market Maker News

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Jan 2, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133503

OptionProbability

It won't, not before 2027

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

June 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

Will "Here's to the Polypropylene Makers" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 27, 5:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

56.3%chance

82768

OptionVotes

YES

1336

169

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.81%chance

161494

OptionVotes

YES

990

630

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8677

OptionProbability

SN64

SN4

SN9

SN8

SN51

SN1

SN2

SN3

SN5

SN6

SN7

SN10

SN11

SN12

SN13

SN14

SN15

SN16

SN17

SN18

SN19

SN20

SN21

SN22

SN23

SN24

SN25

SN26

SN27

SN28

SN29

SN30

SN31

SN32

SN33

SN34

SN35

SN36

SN37

SN38

SN39

SN40

SN41

SN42

SN43

SN44

SN45

SN46

SN47

SN48

SN49

SN50

SN52

SN53

SN54

SN55

SN56

SN57

SN58

SN59

SN60

SN61

SN62

SN63

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

Will Soy, Oat, Almond and other Non Dairy Milks still be allowed to use the word 'Milk' in the USA on Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 6, 5:38 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

89.22%chance

15478

OptionVotes

YES

984

887

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

Nov 20, 8:31 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

45.21%chance

5319

OptionVotes

YES

1101

908

UK Ban Traditional Petrol Cars by 2030?

Feb 23, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.56%chance

4137

OptionVotes

YES

224

Most unique feature of Manifold Markets Stocks (Add your own)

Apr 10, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

482

OptionProbability

Create your own questions

Resolve your own prediction markets

Other

Bounties for comments

Automated market maker (AMM)

Liquidity subsidy

Polls

Prediction market

Will Western Digital and Kioxia complete merger before 2027?

Oct 14, 10:38 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

22.66%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

156

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

151

Market Maker News

Prediction markets for Market Maker

Prediction markets for Market Maker

Prediction markets for Market Maker

When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?

Will "Here's to the Polypropylene Makers" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Will Soy, Oat, Almond and other Non Dairy Milks still be allowed to use the word 'Milk' in the USA on Jan 1st 2028?

Will the new Jaguar car marketing campaign increase sales?

UK Ban Traditional Petrol Cars by 2030?

Most unique feature of Manifold Markets Stocks (Add your own)

Will Western Digital and Kioxia complete merger before 2027?

Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?

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