Market on Close News

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Copenhagen

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

1 trillion or higher?

1.2 trillion or higher?

1.5 trillion or higher?

1.8 trillion or higher?

2 trillion or higher?

2.4 trillion or higher?

2.7 trillion or higher?

3 trillion or higher?

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

YES

Will the S&P/NZX 50 exceed 12,500.00 at Dec 31 Market close?

Will the S&P/NZX 50 exceed 13,000.00 at Dec 31 Market close?

Will the S&P/NZX 50 exceed 13,250.00 at Dec 31 Market close?

Will the S&P/NZX 50 exceed 13,500.00 at Dec 31 Market close?

1500 - 1999

1000 - 1499

2000 - 2499

2500 - 3000

Above 3000

500 - 999

1 trillion or higher?

1.2 trillion or higher?

1.5 trillion or higher?

1.8 trillion or higher?

2 trillion or higher?

2.4 trillion or higher?

2.7 trillion or higher?

3 trillion or higher?

Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

Other

Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

A bluff.

Something to prevent her from committing suicide

Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

The answer will never be officially revealed.

100+

300+

500+

1,000+

2,000+

3,000+

4,000+

5,000+

7,500+

10,000+

20,000+

50,000+

After a week in theaters have sell less than half the tickets of Nolan version in the same timeframe

It get's officially cancelled

Three months after wide US release it has a IMDB score below 5.0

Black character, if any, is slave

Odysseys is played by an ethnically Greek actor.

The movie is released before 2030 (market close)

Jamaica

Papua New Guinea

Australia

Saint Vincent & the Grenadines

Belize

Other

Antigua and Barbuda

None by market close

India

New Zealand

Canada

The Bahamas

Grenada

Saint Kitts & Nevis

Saint Lucia

Solomon Islands

Tuvalu