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Market on Open News

    Prediction markets for Market on Open

    Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

    Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    62.05%chance
    13446712

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    13288

    7276

    OpenAI completes an IPO in 2027 and has a market cap of $1.5trillion+?

    Oct 1, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    48.77%chance
    3512048

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1025

    976

    OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

    May 22, 5:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2.9%chance
    319106

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4794

    95

    Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

    Jun 8, 9:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    248755

    OptionProbability

    $5T–$6T

    $4T–$5T

    Over $8T

    $6T–$7T

    $7T–$8T

    $3T–$4T

    Under $3T

    55

    20

    10

    6

    6

    2

    1

    cc6's guessing game

    Oct 22, 5:40 PMOct 13, 6:59 AM
    71627

    OptionProbability

    she like math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft

    she likes to say "how the fox are you doing"

    she likes coding

    she likes cabbage

    she is friends with an imo member on discord

    NULL (stays open to avoid market closure)

    she likes tea

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    66

    0

    Will openAI retain >50% chatbot market share through 2030?

    Dec 8, 2:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    31.94%chance
    16907

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1460

    685

    Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market

    Apr 11, 11:52 PMJul 6, 3:59 AM
    21892

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak

    He was fired

    He leaked non-trivial information

    The leak was not in bad faith

    The firing meaningfully relates to the board drama

    There will be related legal action against him

    The firing meaningfully relates to concerns he had about AI timelines/alignment not being taken seriously enough (https://twitter.com/apples_jimmy/status/1778558928433119599)

    The firing meaningfully relates to Ilya

    The firing will result in legal action against OpenAI

    He was going to quit

    The firing meaningfully relates to Q*

    90

    85

    72

    60

    50

    40

    39

    30

    27

    25

    8

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1156

    864

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1061

    961

    What changes should I make to Predictionary?

    Sep 20, 3:51 AMJan 2, 4:34 AM
    6211

    OptionProbability

    Add tooltips that explain how everything works

    Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

    If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

    Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

    Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

    Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

    Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

    Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

    Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

    Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

    Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

    Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

    A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

    Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

    Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

    Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

    Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

    Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

    Open markets in new tab by default

    Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

    Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

    Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

    Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

    Dark Mode

    Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

    Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

    Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

    Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

    Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

    Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

    Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

    Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

    Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

    Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

    Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

    Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

    Allow people to place long-term limit orders

    Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

    Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

    Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

    Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

    Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

    Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

    Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

    Make a row flash when its probability changes

    Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

    Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

    Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

    Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

    Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

    Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

    Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

    Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

    Include all unlisted markets

    72

    63

    55

    55

    55

    55

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    41

    41

    41

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