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Prediction markets for Market Outperform

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

79.16%chance

22182999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3814

509

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1621915

OptionProbability

JetBlue

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Frontier

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

23

17

17

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?

Jan 21, 6:12 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

103566

OptionProbability

Other

Bobby Pulido (D- TX15)

Susan Collins (R|ME-SEN)

Adam Hamilton (D- KS Sen)

Henry Cuellar (D|TX-26)

Jack Reed (D|CT-SEN)

Brian Fitzpatrick (R|PA-01)

Mary Peltola (D|AK-SEN)

Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL)

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D|MI-08)

Grace Meng (D|NY-6)

45

35

6

6

4

1

1

1

0

0

0

AI will run a $1bn+ outperforming market hedge fund by 2030 where I am 80% sure that AI is doing ~all functions

May 1, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.85%chance

241283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

960

Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?

Jul 30, 5:35 PMSep 1, 11:00 PM

53.26%chance

181014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

937

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will Intel outperform Samsung if China invades Taiwan in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.76%chance

5494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

830

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 24, 4:41 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

64.08%chance

15415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Will the S&P500 outperform the total world stock market over the next 50 years?

Apr 4, 12:04 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

68.95%chance

8135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

165

By what date will FTSE All-World ex-US Index (~VEU) have outperformed US Total Market (~VTI) for a period of 5+ years?

Nov 20, 6:36 PM

20

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