Market Perform News

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

<3 months

4-4.5 months

3.5-4 months

4.5-5 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

YES

Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

Up 5% to 14%

Up 15% to 24%

Down 5% to 14%

Up 4% or less

Down 4% or less

Down 25% or more

Down 15% to 24%