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Prediction markets for Marketing

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45.38%chance

4791149069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10811

8402

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

324668330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2715

2447

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.69%chance

72139044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31200

7714

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

16280148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3716

943

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6151768

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@retr0id

@8my41

@vi

@Bandors

@Quroe

@Eternal

@Cy

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

50

31

28

26

25

21

20

15

14

13

13

11

10

8

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5350079

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

63

23

5

5

3

1

1

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.26%chance

12139591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15461

6143

Which market category on MNX will generate the most volume in 2026?

Apr 9, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2118312

OptionProbability

Equity or index perps

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

Benchmarkets

42

32

11

8

7

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10073

9882

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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