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Prediction markets for Marketing

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48%chance

4531094477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11267

7882

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.02%chance

38205065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236954

20579

EIA projection for US BEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 6:16 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

9131287

OptionProbability

9 - 10.59%

10.6 - 12.89%

7.0 - 8.99%

0 - 6.99%

12.9 - 100%

31

25

24

11

9

EIA projection for U.S. HEV market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:10 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

584484

OptionProbability

11.8 - 13.74 %

10 - 11.79 %

13.75 - 16 %

8 - 9.99 %

Other

5 - 7.99 %

38

22

17

11

9

3

Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.45%chance

5280920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23543

8150

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

4844364

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

51

26

10

7

3

1

1

1

Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?

Dec 11, 6:14 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

19.53%chance

13942728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14283

8637

Will this market get Calaveras AI a hire by EOY 2025?

Aug 12, 7:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.76%chance

3626945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25035

3994

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

11380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 72 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

49.78%chance

15223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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