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Prediction markets for Marketing

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Jan 11, 5:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.7%chance

4761148952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10695

8544

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.19%chance

323660146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

2156

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.56%chance

72137446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31997

7675

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.83%chance

15588390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

636

This market resolves NO

Mar 1, 6:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

16179283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

953

Highest volume prediction market for 2028 US prez election?

Feb 20, 12:06 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM

5247734

OptionProbability

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

PredictIt

57

26

6

6

3

1

1

1

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

11739485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15373

6183

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.11%chance

234441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10009

9973

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

May 17, 3:23 AMJul 19, 2:59 PM

50.3%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10060

9941

this market resolves yes if over 98%, no if under 2%, for 24 consecutive hours

Jun 8, 7:00 PMDec 30, 6:56 PM

48%chance

19272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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