Marketplace News

NO

YES

NO

People lose interest in it and stop using the site

Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.

Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable

Not with a bang but a whimper

They go bankrupt

Shut down by the U.S. federal government

As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)

Outcompeted in the online marketplace

Other

Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website

Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death

Overall bans on prediction markets by major governments

Manifold is eternal

Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance

with thunderous applause

A lover's quarrel

Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama

Erotic auto-asphyxiation

will be dyed into a zebra pattern in black and grey

Heat death

YES

YES

0-20%

61-80%

81-100%

41-60%

YES

YES

NO

NO

NO