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Prediction markets for Mars

Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?

Feb 7, 6:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.75%chance

169146317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2970

528

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.63%chance

432109670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11029

10692

Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44%chance

23884515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2229

1989

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

33%chance

7173836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

880

Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Mar 24, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

14337038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17966

9772

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?

Mar 18, 12:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.74%chance

14526181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3924

553

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.22%chance

10025153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4662

1436

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.28%chance

17224160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14839

8066

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

317843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6627

496

Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Jan 3, 10:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

34.28%chance

415970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

947

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.1%chance

375382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

943

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

304166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

996

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