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Prediction markets for MAS

"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?

Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM

4.27%chance

150113839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47371

2111

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.06%chance

2312061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12241

8166

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

28.3%chance

705905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2357

2237

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.14%chance

254183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4311

2277

Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?

Nov 8, 7:08 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

15.52%chance

312448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

1530

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Prime Hydration wins Messi Mas+ countersuit?

May 21, 5:17 AMDec 31, 6:13 AM

68.78%chance

31409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

67

Massachusetts Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?

Apr 10, 4:34 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM

191372

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

95

3

2

Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?

Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.5%chance

241211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

1060

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.44%chance

12280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

977

Melyik évben lesz Magyarországnak más miniszterelnöke mint Orbán Viktor?

Feb 15, 3:41 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

4131

OptionProbability

2026

2031 vagy később

2025

2027

2029

2030

2028

2024

38

25

7

7

7

7

6

4

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