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Prediction markets for Material Impact

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?

Dec 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.7%chance

365793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

946

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

293553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

708

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?

Dec 23, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.96%chance

172325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

128

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

262006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

851

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.98%chance

241012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

812

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will samarium oxide prices increase by more than 25% globally by Q2 2026?

Feb 21, 12:03 PMAug 20, 12:03 PM

50.17%chance

4558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

899

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

37.06%chance

6506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

862

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.52%chance

4308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

842

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will China's Dec 2025 export rules cut NdPr supply by more than 10% in H1 2026?

Feb 20, 6:09 AMAug 19, 6:09 AM

50.73%chance

199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

910

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

17

17

17

17

17

17

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