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Prediction markets for Material Impact

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?

Dec 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.96%chance

335643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

908

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

283381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

714

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?

Dec 23, 6:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.72%chance

192448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1479

919

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

231706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

931

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.98%chance

241012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

812

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?

Dec 23, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6%chance

12926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

125

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?

Dec 23, 6:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.02%chance

11645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

948

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2033?

Dec 23, 7:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.57%chance

9308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

178

Will Aaron Sorkin return to TV before 2030?

Oct 15, 9:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

57.16%chance

2155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Nornickel's palladium production fall below 2.3 million ounces by May 5, 2026?

Feb 4, 9:01 AMMay 5, 9:01 AM

45.36%chance

3140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

992

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.59%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

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