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Prediction markets for Materials

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.5%chance

398784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8099

123

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.49%chance

517972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5305

495

Will 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2065?

Apr 5, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.85%chance

354727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2075

803

Will 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2050?

Apr 6, 1:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.87%chance

332003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

864

There are no aliens or distinguishable alien materials within 100 light-years of Earth.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.85%chance

391890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

980

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

291146

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1038

965

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

878

Will 1 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.87%chance

16768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

895

Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

1500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will 1 ton of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2075?

Apr 5, 6:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.98%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

951

Will 1000 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2065?

Apr 5, 6:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.91%chance

11297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

359

205

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