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Prediction markets for Materials

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

378733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8048

124

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.49%chance

517972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5305

495

Will 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2065?

Apr 5, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.85%chance

354727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2075

803

Will 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2050?

Apr 6, 1:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.87%chance

332003

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

864

There are no aliens or distinguishable alien materials within 100 light-years of Earth.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.85%chance

391890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

980

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

In what year will we discover the first superconducting material at roughly room temperature, atmospheric pressure?

Aug 4, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

291146

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1038

965

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

878

Will 1 kg of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2030?

Apr 5, 6:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.87%chance

16768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1354

895

A Musk company brings back at least a metric ton of non-Earth material

Jul 23, 3:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.98%chance

13633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

73

Will 1 ton of asteroid material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2075?

Apr 5, 6:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.98%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

951

Will perovskite or silicon-peroskite pairs be the most common material for solar panels by 2030?

Jan 30, 5:48 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

30.88%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

144

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