OptionVotes
YES
NO
2438
1224
OptionProbability
DeepSeek
Alibaba (Qwen)
Moonshot (Kimi)
Mistral
thinking machines
Nvidia
01 AI (Yi)
Reka AI
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
Cohere (Command R+)
NexusFlow (Athene)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
100
96
66
51
43
31
22
16
12
10
1251
800
Eris (Gilmour Space)
None (resolves if none have reached orbit by question end - EOY 2035)
Other
Kestrel V (ATSpace)
Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)
SL1 (HyImpulse)
61
18
7
6
5
4
352
70
151
67
173
