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Prediction markets for Matter Labs

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 17, 4:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

238297

OptionProbability

Mistral

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Moonshot (Kimi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

Cohere (Command R+)

Nvidia

thinking machines

100

100

100

100

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174419

OptionProbability

2025-2027

2028-2030

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

29

26

21

13

11

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

75.4%chance

152818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1751

571

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72632

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

Mistral

Nvidia

Thinking Machines Lab

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

99

98

80

76

73

71

50

33

31

31

22

22

21

18

16

11

Will scaling transformers lead to a 60% score on ARC-AGI-2?

Apr 25, 3:34 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69%chance

19750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

68

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7729

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

61

18

7

6

5

4

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Feb 10, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.99%chance

8649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

109

Will someone convince me of ANYTHING that contradicts my (essentially mainstream) knowledge of COVID before 2026?

Jan 1, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.24%chance

598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

66

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