OptionVotes
YES
NO
2438
1224
OptionProbability
2028-2030
2031-2033
2025-2027
2034-2036
2037-2040
30
25
19
14
12
2060
771
Moonshot (Kimi)
Baidu (Ernie)
OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
DeepSeek
Alibaba (Qwen)
Z.ai
Nvidia
Mistral
Thinking Machines Lab
Reka AI
Cohere (Command R+)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
NexusFlow (Athene)
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
01 AI (Yi)
100
83
82
80
40
39
20
18
17
16
15
11
Eris (Gilmour Space)
None reach orbit by EOY 2035
Other
Kestrel V (ATSpace)
Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)
SL1 (HyImpulse)
54
28
6
5
4
294
109