OptionVotes
YES
NO
2438
1224
OptionProbability
2025-2027
2028-2030
2031-2033
2034-2036
2037-2040
29
26
21
13
11
Baidu (Ernie)
OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
DeepSeek
Alibaba (Qwen)
Z.ai
Moonshot (Kimi)
Mistral
Nvidia
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
Thinking Machines Lab
Cohere (Command R+)
Reka AI
NexusFlow (Athene)
01 AI (Yi)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
100
82
78
73
40
31
22
18
16
10
400
Eris (Gilmour Space)
None reach orbit by EOY 2035
Other
Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)
Kestrel V (ATSpace)
SL1 (HyImpulse)
60
20
6
5
4
294
109