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Prediction markets for Matter Labs

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2588

1201

Will I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:10 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.62%chance

277815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2866

691

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

217452

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2031-2033

2025-2027

2034-2036

2037-2040

31

26

15

15

13

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215995

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Alibaba (Qwen)

DeepSeek

Z.ai

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

62

58

41

39

36

17

9

5

4

4

4

2

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

1937

Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?

Aug 5, 6:50 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

36.78%chance

12846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google?

Aug 9, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8833

OptionProbability

None of these options

EOY 2028

EOY 2027

EOY 2026

51

50

40

10

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

54

28

6

5

4

4

How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 2:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10566

OptionProbability

630–659

≤599

600–629

700+

660–699

38

27

21

9

6

Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?

Sep 20, 10:07 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

43.42%chance

999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

79

Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028?

Aug 6, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.16%chance

496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 10, 10:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.19%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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