OptionVotes
YES
NO
2438
1224
OptionProbability
2028-2030
2031-2033
2025-2027
2034-2036
2037-2040
29
24
20
15
12
2060
771
Moonshot (Kimi)
Baidu (Ernie)
OpenAI
Anthropic
Google
DeepSeek
Alibaba (Qwen)
Z.ai
Mistral
Nvidia
Cohere (Command R+)
AI21 Labs (Jamba)
Thinking Machines Lab
Reka AI
NexusFlow (Athene)
01 AI (Yi)
Safe Superintelligence / SSI
100
82
78
40
31
22
18
16
11
10
Eris (Gilmour Space)
None reach orbit by EOY 2035
Other
Kestrel V (ATSpace)
Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)
SL1 (HyImpulse)
54
28
6
5
4
294
109