May News
Prediction markets for May
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.96%chance
638902
OptionVotes
1459
1042
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
87.33%chance
367280
OptionVotes
2625
381
Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
78.52%chance
534606
OptionVotes
1912
523
Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?
Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
41.81%chance
373213
OptionVotes
2708
542
Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?
May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
75.64%chance
392362
OptionVotes
1762
567
During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term
Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM
38.67%chance
181762
OptionVotes
1259
794
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM
64.02%chance
20691
OptionVotes
1093
775
OptionVotes
1392
719
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.75%chance
11423
OptionVotes
1028
975
On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?
Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM
27.54%chance
14379
OptionVotes
1090
957
Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?
May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM
29.39%chance
22310
OptionVotes
1112
941
I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?
Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM
54.17%chance
5233
OptionVotes
1087
920