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Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Someone solves agent foundations

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

AIs never develop coherent goals

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Significant Rogue AI Incident

Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections

Democrats win Iowa governorship

Republicans lose the house majority in midterms

James Talarico wins Texas senate election

Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election

Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election

@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms

Democracy survives

Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently

Mass Deportations

Trump is impeached

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Democrats win back the white house in 2028

Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister

Left-wing CPAC alternative launches

RFK Jr impeached

Suffer a fall in public

Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life

Chuck Grassley dies

Peter Hotez goes to prison

Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist

@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve

Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency

All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Nuclear weapon detonation

AGI achieved

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

A second pope is elected

Republicans win the white house in 2028

Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law

Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms

100k humanoid robots manufactured

All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist

Reiner Fuellmich released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

Another covid-like pandemic

NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently

Bell tower added at the US Capitol

Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister

Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality

Science and public health infrastructures dies

All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely

Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently

Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election

Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor

Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently

MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses

A human walks on the Moon

Joe Exotic is released from prison

Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs

Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Antifa dissolves

Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished

AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor

Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election

Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished

NASA abolished

US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide

Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority

Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market

Adam Schiff goes to prison

Chris Whitty goes to prison

European countries all under far-right regime control

Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president

Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist

Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison

Actblue shut down and cease to exist

All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently

World war 3 and global war launch

Metaculus shut down and cease to exist

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

China invades Taiwan

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist

Latin American countries all under far-right regime control

Ilhan Omar deported

Soros family goes to prison

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Coup attempt in the United States

All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s

Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms

Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister

Hillary Clinton goes to prison

All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist

Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

Republicans win control of the house

All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market

Fauci goes to prison

Manifold market shut down and cease to exist

US withdraws from United Nations

Viktor Orban returns as prime minister

GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments

Russia invades all European countries

Barack Obama goes to prison

Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister

Abolish global health funding and infrastructures

Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently

Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide

Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide

Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology

Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets

Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

Democracy dies

All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down

World Health Organization dissolved and abolished

Far-right seizes all American institutions

All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE

Nuclear war

Reform UK wins UK 2029 election

World becomes global far-right regime

Russia invades all NATO countries

Bill Gates goes to prison

All media under right-wing control

North Korea bombs and invades South Korea

Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections

US captures Lula and removes him from office

Supreme Court packing

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Donald Trump reelected President

United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship

All federal and state judges impeached

All Democrats imprisoned

Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland

Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister

Human extinction

US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state

Democrats permanently locked out of power

Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election

All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison

Eagles three-peat

2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor

Abolish elections permanently

Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally

All Trump opponents go to prison

Canada becomes 51st state

Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland

Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms

Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms

Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide

End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.

The list of answers to this question form a constitution of truth that can be aligned decentrally by a free market.

A network state could use a predictive market constitution to define its smart social contracts.

This prediction is effectively the same as this one and nobody can explain why this mechanism isn't able to align AI at scale. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration

Large scale AI systems should have intrinsic guardrail behaviors that no one actor can override.

Betting on philosophy seems like a fun way to (1) learn philosophy (2) contribute to a transhumanist utopia world where our net incomes are highly correlated with how much beneficial stuff we taught the public domain AI.

Constitutions play a critical role in the frontier methods for aligning AI.

A good AI should not kill people.

There would be a dramatic positive change in the world if teenagers and homeless folks could earn crypto on an app they download for free to argue philosophy with an AI until they can either prove the AI is right or prove it is wrong.

Philosophy is primarily the pursuit of defining language.

A duty to reason is the foundation for goodness.

I have free will.

A good AI should not infringe on the rights, autonomy or property of humans.

We should stop doing massive training runs.

The evolutionary environment contains perverse incentives that have led to substantial false consciousness in humans

Induction is not justified.

A good AI, by design, requires large scale human participation to grow.

A good AI requires large scale humanity verification before it accepts new data as true.

The principle of uniformity in nature is self evident or justified by self evident facts.

God exists.

AI should not create novel content.

The quality of mercy is not strained...

National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital

House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting

Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds

Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation

>=40k increase in weekly GP appointments

2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales

UK energy independence from fossil fuels

>=1.5 million new homes built

NO

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Alliance for Global Justice

Amnesty International

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Greenpeace

Planned Parenthood

Oxfam

AFL-CIO

GiveDirectly

NAACP

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

Southern Poverty Law Center

OpenAI

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

John Bolton

Letitia James

Fani Willis

Any sitting Democratic elected official

Lisa Cook

Adam Schiff

Jack Smith

Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case

Tim Walz

Kevin Warsh

George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership

Jerome Powell

Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden

Liz Cheney

Hunter Biden

23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

Against Malaria Foundation

Malaria Consortium

New Incentives

No, impossible and will never extinct or cease to exist

No, remains a foundational pillar of statistics, finance, and science

No, continues to evolve alongside machine learning and neural networks

Yes, replaced by deterministic AI-driven oracle systems

Yes, rendered obsolete by advances in quantum or absolute precision modeling

Against Malaria Foundation

New Incentives

Malaria Consortium

NO