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Medal News

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87146143

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

60

26

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

29.05%chance

8663380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1563

640

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

4211193

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Tom hutchcroft

Amol Aggarwal

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Ewain Gwynne

Alex Smith

Hong Wang

Jeremy Hahn

Dor Minzer

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

Alexander Dunn

Cristiana De Filippis

Ruixiang Zhang

David Budden

Antoine Song

61

12

11

10

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?

Feb 27, 10:48 PMJan 21, 12:00 PM

7.53%chance

409617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

285

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

212055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

688

Will Tom Brady win a medal in the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Jan 16, 2:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

82032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2923

342

Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?

Apr 28, 3:29 AMMar 21, 3:00 PM

43.53%chance

211522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

878

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

83.68%chance

141112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

959

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

53.47%chance

11857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

148

If the US Women were considered a country, will they be in the Top 3 for the gold medal count at the 2028 Olympics?

Aug 11, 5:35 PMAug 19, 6:59 AM

68.84%chance

5500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

673

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.43%chance

16281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

920

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