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Prediction markets for Medal

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

198138354

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Karim Adiprasito

Sam Raskin

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Maksym Radziwill

Aleksandr Logunov

Yu Deng

Other

Will Sawin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Song Sun

Miguel Walsh

Hannah Larson

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

25

21

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112863

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMAug 31, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

7552366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8693

115

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3511655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8352

653

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

63.05%chance

191745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

766

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

61.04%chance

10837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

130

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

80.63%chance

10730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

883

If the US Women were considered a country, will they be in the Top 3 for the gold medal count at the 2028 Olympics?

Aug 11, 5:35 PMAug 19, 6:59 AM

68.84%chance

5500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

673

Will ""AI achieves silver-medal standard solving In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 26, 6:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

3392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.02%chance

15214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

928

Will Stephen Wolfram win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Adam Marblestone win the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2070?

Sep 21, 6:52 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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