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Prediction markets for MEDI

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.76%chance

2440407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36783

7377

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.09%chance

5631829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22383

7194

Did US real median household income increase in 2022?

Nov 5, 11:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.23%chance

4017224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21518

5099

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

337337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

586279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1629

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2816

612

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.56%chance

14740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

607

Is obesity primarily mediated by deficiencies in GABA, GABA transmission and/or GABA reception?

Apr 24, 6:52 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

25.77%chance

11499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

947

Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:27 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.53%chance

14432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

979

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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