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MEDI News

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

11118952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7997

907

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

3013200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8798

4686

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

70.14%chance

768157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

893

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.56%chance

337525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

648

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.56%chance

101181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

117

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1457

488

Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:27 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.08%chance

15482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

874

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

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