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Prediction markets for MEDI

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

80.94%chance

1718579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2180

513

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.86%chance

10717195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6860

981

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.27%chance

7512194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14828

6745

Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?

Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.67%chance

1610591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18131

5516

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

258406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5393

3279

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.26%chance

758057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

938

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.56%chance

337525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

648

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will Donald Trump be revealed to have a major medical condition before the end of his second presidential term?

Nov 7, 7:11 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

76.44%chance

313515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

555

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.64%chance

15890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1457

488

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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