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Prediction markets for Media

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

11118952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7997

907

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

3013200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8798

4686

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.56%chance

337525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

648

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.16%chance

241551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

926

Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?

Feb 12, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.56%chance

101181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1708

117

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.79%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

957

Will I avoid audiovisual media before 5p.m. until December? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Nov 5, 8:33 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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