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Prediction markets for Media

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.72%chance

7395952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91931

4159

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.39%chance

3376158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54440

6835

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

337337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?

Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM

40.2%chance

142701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1220

820

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.62%chance

221401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Putin claims a clip is fake that Western media claim is real before 2026

Dec 21, 8:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.89%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1649

606

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

46.74%chance

201015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?

Dec 11, 2:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.29%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

942

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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