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Prediction markets for Media

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.87%chance

11018608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7653

928

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.27%chance

7512194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14828

6745

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

279659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5151

4526

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.56%chance

337525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

648

Will UK children face a social media curfew before 2029?

Jun 9, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

101832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

795

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.16%chance

241551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

926

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

36.55%chance

201265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

759

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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