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Top stories

Trump Sons Back $300 Million SPAC Aimed at U.S. Manufacturing

Trump Sons Back $300 Million SPAC Aimed at U.S. Manufacturing

Authors

5

9 hours ago

Prediction markets for Media

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.76%chance

2440407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36783

7377

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.95%chance

5631608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22604

7167

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

327237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 12:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.79%chance

586279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1629

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.62%chance

221401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will "age escape velocity" become a talking point in popular media within the end of 2030?

Dec 29, 4:04 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

46.74%chance

201015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2026? (Super Smash Bros promotion event)

Oct 21, 11:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.13%chance

7525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

657

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.72%chance

5481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

697

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will "Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 4:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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Trump Sons Back $300 Million SPAC Aimed at U.S. Manufacturing
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