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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

173115651

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

35

24

10

7

7

5

4

4

2

2

0

0

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6662252

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

386539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

80.41%chance

163025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2026

494

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

101159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.21%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

989

Will Donald Trump mention Nancy Pelosi's (or Paul Pelosi's) stock holdings during 2026?

Jan 10, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.39%chance

6524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.64%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

973

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?

Mar 9, 5:01 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.33%chance

15191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

938

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