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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15397125

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,450 - 1,599

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1,300 - 1,449

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

61

12

9

7

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

7

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32786

3050

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

386539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Will leftists like Mamdani?

Sep 12, 3:01 AMJan 1, 3:53 AM

60.25%chance

121132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

812

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.87%chance

16543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

969

Will Donald Trump mention Nancy Pelosi's (or Paul Pelosi's) stock holdings during 2026?

Jan 10, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.39%chance

6524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.64%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

973

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

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