Media Matters News

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Nov 13, 4:14 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.55%chance

548335917

OptionVotes

YES

7860

5295

Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?

Aug 27, 8:13 PMFeb 2, 2:59 AM

5139990

OptionProbability

18-months (27th Jan 2026)

12 months (27th Aug 2025)

6 months (27th Jan 2025)

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Nov 20, 6:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.34%chance

587408

OptionVotes

YES

1477

864

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.68%chance

404470

OptionVotes

YES

984

823

If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?

Nov 23, 4:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153191

OptionProbability

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Alliance for Global Justice

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Planned Parenthood

Greenpeace

AFL-CIO

Oxfam

GiveDirectly

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Southern Poverty Law Center

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

NAACP

Amnesty International

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

OpenAI

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

3255

688

Will Russia's frozen state assets be seized before 2026 ?

Jul 27, 11:29 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

19.37%chance

232618

OptionVotes

YES

1909

177

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.31%chance

241325

OptionVotes

YES

1143

933

Will the 538 brand be active again by the end of the year?

Mar 5, 3:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.99%chance

201255

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.24%chance

19714

OptionVotes

YES

1361

789

Will someone convince me of ANYTHING that contradicts my (essentially mainstream) knowledge of COVID before 2026?

Jan 1, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.24%chance

598

OptionVotes

YES

173

Media Matters News

Prediction markets for Media Matters

Prediction markets for Media Matters

Prediction markets for Media Matters

Will Musk be on good terms with Trump at the end of 2025?

Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?

Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Will Russia's frozen state assets be seized before 2026 ?

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Will the 538 brand be active again by the end of the year?

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Will someone convince me of ANYTHING that contradicts my (essentially mainstream) knowledge of COVID before 2026?

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